South Africa-China Relations - Evolving Cooperation, Collaboration and Competition

ANALYSIS

By Chris Alden and Yu-Shan Wu

South Africa, a leading economy on the African continent, and China, the largest developing country in the world, have forged a unique partnership. Operating at bilateral, continental and multilateral levels, the governments are actively striving to realise the comprehensive strategic partnership envisaged in 2010.

Enhancing these developments is South Africa's status as home to the continent's largest and oldest Chinese community, a concentration of Confucian Institutes and an active Chinese media presence. With the pace of trade and investment picking up, coupled to closer international cooperation with Beijing through the G-20 and BRICS grouping, South Africa-China ties are assuming a significant position in continental and even global affairs.

It is also a relationship of paradoxes, breaking with many of the assumptions that underpin contemporary analyses of 'China-Africa' ties. For instance, until recently South African investment into China far exceeded in depth that of China into South Africa.

Moreover, while economic ties between the two countries have extended beyond the conventions of resource extraction and infrastructure financing seen in other African countries, this appears to be changing.

Finally, the vocal criticism of Chinese policies levelled by some local trade unions, businesses and civil society representatives contrasts with the positive attitude in other quarters and increasingly warm party-to-party relations.

Bilateral ties

Following the establishment of formal diplomatic ties in 1998, relations have advanced gradually from the cautious approach adopted by former president Thabo Mbeki to a more all-embracing character under President Jacob Zuma. At present the most significant link, apart from diplomatic relations, is economic with two way trade accelerating since 2009, jumping by 32% between 2012 from R205 billion to R270 billion in 2013, thereby making China the country's largest trading partner. The momentum building behind more than a decade and a half of cooperation is producing closer economic ties that mirror the burgeoning bilateral diplomatic relationship.

Yet ironically one of the strongest features of its bilateral ties is also the most challenging. Like most of South Africa's trade relations, it has a large trade deficit with China, driven by South Africa's high imports of value-added goods and China's increasing demand for mineral products. Moreover, commercial competition with China in certain sectors like textiles has caused some like Moeletsi Mbeki to worry about 'de-industrialisation'. As a result there have been concerted efforts by both governments to address such challenges through mechanisms such as the Joint-Ministerial Working Group.

In terms of FDI, South African companies have enjoyed a degree of success through their presence in China, such as the case of South Africa's media conglomerate, Naspers and its investment into China's largest Internet company, Tencent. Still when the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) took a 20% stake ($5.5 billion) in South Africa's Standard Bank - said to be one of the largest foreign direct investments into the country - there were high hopes of further expansion of commercial relations. South Africa is deemed a 'mature' market with established and highly competitive players in strategic sectors (such as mining) and its strong regulatory framework and institutional structures seem to pose obstacles for new commercial entrants from China.

However, the recent announcement of Chinese financing for local beneficiation through a steel plant in Phalaborwa, is arguably part of a new trend aimed at employment generating investment for South Africans. This seems to be echoed in the expansion of Hisense and the FAW automotive manufacturing plants, discussions for the revival of the Coega Industrial Development Zone and even a prospective mixed-use residential, retail and light-industry facility east of Johannesburg.

Zimbabwe: Biti, Ncube Parties Start Unification Talks

FORMER MDC secretaries general Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube have started talks aimed uniting their two political formations amid ongoing broader consultations for a grand opposition alliance against the ruling Zanu PF party.

Ncube, the MDC's founding secretary general, and several senior leaders broke ranks with then MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai in 2005, accusing him of dictatorship and using violence against individuals who did not agree with him in the party.

Similarly Biti, who took over from Ncube, and other disgruntled top officials also ditched Tsvangirai this year over pretty much the same reasons as discontent boiled over after the MDC-T's disastrous performance in last year's elections.

The former finance minister has since formed the MDC Renewal Team which is being transformed into a political party after they failed to force Tsvangirai out of power.

In a statement released Wednesday following a meeting between Biti and the MDC-Ncube's secretary general, Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, the two parties signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to commence talks.

"The two secretary generals of the MDC and the MDC Renewal Team, Misihairabwi-Mushonga and Biti with their negotiation teams respectively met today in Harare as mandated by their political parties and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to officially commence talks on reunification.

"The basis for the re-unification is based on the common history, bond and the origins of the Movement for Democratic Change as formed in 1999," said a statement posted on Biti's MDC-Renewal group website.

The two groups also committed themselves to continue to grand coalition talks with other opposition parties in the country.

"The talks will be guided by the shared values and principles of the MDC which include tolerance, the rule of law, peace, democracy, gender equality and a servant leadership," read the statement.

"The two formations are convinced of the necessity and imperative of the reunification as an important step towards achieving national progress and achievement of the ultimate goal of a democratic and prosperous Zimbabwe.

"However, the two political parties will continue to be part of the grand coalition talks and consultations in which the two parties have been involved in and are fully committed".

Ncube's MDC, the Simba Makoni-fronted Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn party, Dumiso Dabengwa's Zapu and the Renewal group are in the middle of talks to form a grand coalition that will contest the 2018 elections.

Libya: UN Ramping Up Aid Efforts Amid Deepening Crisis

The United Nations humanitarian wing said today it will need an estimated $35 million in additional funding to continue helping hundreds of thousands of people affected by the ongoing crisis in Libya.

According to the Libya country team of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), more than 331,000 people are in need of assistance, including an estimated 287,000 people who are internally displaced within and around the capital, Tripoli, as well as Benghazi.

In addition, another 100,000 people have fled to neighbouring countries amid the continuing violence between rival armed factions in the country.

In a press statement released today, OCHA said the main humanitarian priorities outlined in its new appeal are health and food assistance, provision of non-food items and hygiene kits, and mine action activities which would target the internally displaced, migrants, refugees, other vulnerable groups and affected host communities.

"Whilst the conflict has obliged the vast majority of the international community present in Libya, including the United Nations, to temporarily withdraw from the country, access is being sought through national and international partners who have presence in the country and through UN agency national staff," the statement said.

It added that humanitarian needs assessments were ongoing "in order to take into account the fluid security situation in the country and identify and target the most vulnerable affected populations and guide the humanitarian response."

Civilian casualties, injuries and large-scale displacement continue to increase in Libya as a result of recent clashes in Tripoli and several other areas of the country.

The North African nation has been embroiled in some of the worst fighting since the 2011 uprising that ousted former leader Muammar al-Qadhafi and set the country on a transition to democracy.

Unlocking Africa's Trade Potential

SPONSOR WIRE

By Arancha González

Africa's over 50 million small businesses are the backbone of the continent's economy. Trade is the lifeblood of the millions of entrepreneurs looking for opportunities beyond their national borders. So it is high time that the International Trade Centre (ITC), the only United Nations organization with an exclusive focus on assisting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) internationalise, brings its flagship conference to Africa.
The World Export Development Forum (WEDF), to take place in Kigali, Rwanda, from 15-17 September, will be about ideas and best practices to help SMEs diversify, move up the value chain, innovate, become more productive and generate decent jobs. It will also be an opportunity for businesses to find new partners, tap into new markets, meet potential investors. ITC, in partnership with the Rwanda Development Board, will create an opportunity for African policy makers, trade and investment promotion organizations, and entrepreneurs to talk business but more importantly to do business in Africa.
African markets are growing, with the African economy expected to expand by over 6% this year. Africa has a plan to ensure its markets become more integrated regionally to benefit from economies of scale and synergies. Investors are looking at Africa as the last untapped growth frontier – and the level of foreign direct investment is expected to grow significantly from last year's USD 57 billion. But translating this potential into more and better jobs for youth, into more equal societies with economically empowered women and into better serviced rural communities will require collective efforts. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and other thought leaders, including Richard Sezibera Secretary-General of the East African Community, Fatima Haram Acyl, Commissioner for Trade and Industry of the African Union and young entrepreneur and investor Ashish Thakkar, as well as practitioners from around the world will help us do that in Kigali.
Made in Africa
Integrating into regional and global production networks is of particular importance to Africa as trade takes place increasingly within value chains built around large multinationals. It is through value addition that African companies will be able to grow.
African industrialisation needs to come front and centre. But tomorrow's "Made in Africa" will need to go beyond manufacturing. It will also require efficient, well regulated and open services markets, including tourism. It will also be about a more vibrant agro-processing sector, which holds great promise for rural development. It will be about ensuring that extractive industries build linkages with the economies within which they operate. Government policies should actively promote the development of productive sectors where value addition and retention at source are greatest. For that improving trade facilitation is also of the essence, because international companies looking for suppliers will steer clear of countries with cumbersome, expensive and unpredictable border procedures. Lowering transaction costs and waiting times at border crossings are equally key to economic integration within Africa. More and easier intra-Africa trade will be a critical foundation for increased business with the rest of the world. These issues will take centre stage at WEDF.

Why SMEs?
Small businesses provide close to two- thirds of jobs in Africa. Their increased participation in regional and global trade will lead to improved livelihoods for a large segment of the population, including women and youth. Exporting SMEs tend to be more productive and pay higher wages than those producing for the domestic market alone. The contribution of SMEs to job creation in developing countries is essential. They will be a key source of the close to 500 million jobs that we will need to generate between now and 2030. They are also the backbone for cross-border trade and regional market integration.
The theme of WEDF 2014, 'SMEs: Creating jobs through trade,' reflects the importance that ITC, RDB and their partners attach to the role of a vibrant private sector in driving trade-led growth and development. Speakers will explore the necessary policy and support measures required to enable SMEs to realize their potential as growth and employment drivers by investing in building productive capacity, improving skills, and supporting access to capital and finance. SME competitiveness is a key factor in determining a country's overall competitiveness and its ability to respond to international market demand.

Empowering women entrepreneurs
WEDF will have a dedicated focus on women's entrepreneurship. A roundtable gathering of women leaders, businesswomen and trade support institutions will discuss corporate and government procurement issues, including a plan to ensure a greater part of government purchases benefit women-owned SMEs. More than 400 women-owned companies from 45 developing countries have registered for the Women Vendors Exhibition and Forum (WVEF) to generate new business.
Register for WEDF 2014 at www.intracen.org/wedf. We look forward to welcoming you in Kigali!World Export Development Forum to help Africa's SMEs thrive in the world economy
By Arancha González, Executive Director, International Trade Centre, Geneva and Francis Gatare, Chief Executive Officer, Rwanda Development Board
Africa's over 50 million small businesses are the backbone of the continent's economy. Trade is the lifeblood of the millions of entrepreneurs looking for opportunities beyond their national borders. So it is high time that the International Trade Centre (ITC), the only United Nations organization with an exclusive focus on assisting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) internationalise, brings its flagship conference to Africa.
The World Export Development Forum (WEDF), to take place in Kigali, Rwanda, from 15-17 September, will be about ideas and best practices to help SMEs diversify, move up the value chain, innovate, become more productive and generate decent jobs. It will also be an opportunity for businesses to find new partners, tap into new markets, meet potential investors. ITC, in partnership with the Rwanda Development Board, will create an opportunity for African policy makers, trade and investment promotion organizations, and entrepreneurs to talk business but more importantly to do business in Africa.
African markets are growing, with the African economy expected to expand by over 6% this year. Africa has a plan to ensure its markets become more integrated regionally to benefit from economies of scale and synergies. Investors are looking at Africa as the last untapped growth frontier – and the level of foreign direct investment is expected to grow significantly from last year's USD 57 billion. But translating this potential into more and better jobs for youth, into more equal societies with economically empowered women and into better serviced rural communities will require collective efforts. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and other thought leaders, including Richard Sezibera Secretary-General of the East African Community, Fatima Haram Acyl, Commissioner for Trade and Industry of the African Union and young entrepreneur and investor Ashish Thakkar, as well as practitioners from around the world will help us do that in Kigali.

Made in Africa
Integrating into regional and global production networks is of particular importance to Africa as trade takes place increasingly within value chains built around large multinationals. It is through value addition that African companies will be able to grow.
African industrialisation needs to come front and centre. But tomorrow's "Made in Africa" will need to go beyond manufacturing. It will also require efficient, well regulated and open services markets, including tourism. It will also be about a more vibrant agro-processing sector, which holds great promise for rural development. It will be about ensuring that extractive industries build linkages with the economies within which they operate. Government policies should actively promote the development of productive sectors where value addition and retention at source are greatest. For that improving trade facilitation is also of the essence, because international companies looking for suppliers will steer clear of countries with cumbersome, expensive and unpredictable border procedures. Lowering transaction costs and waiting times at border crossings are equally key to economic integration within Africa. More and easier intra-Africa trade will be a critical foundation for increased business with the rest of the world. These issues will take centre stage at WEDF.

Why SMEs?
Small businesses provide close to two- thirds of jobs in Africa. Their increased participation in regional and global trade will lead to improved livelihoods for a large segment of the population, including women and youth. Exporting SMEs tend to be more productive and pay higher wages than those producing for the domestic market alone. The contribution of SMEs to job creation in developing countries is essential. They will be a key source of the close to 500 million jobs that we will need to generate between now and 2030. They are also the backbone for cross-border trade and regional market integration.
The theme of WEDF 2014, 'SMEs: Creating jobs through trade,' reflects the importance that ITC, RDB and their partners attach to the role of a vibrant private sector in driving trade-led growth and development. Speakers will explore the necessary policy and support measures required to enable SMEs to realize their potential as growth and employment drivers by investing in building productive capacity, improving skills, and supporting access to capital and finance. SME competitiveness is a key factor in determining a country's overall competitiveness and its ability to respond to international market demand.

Empowering women entrepreneurs
WEDF will have a dedicated focus on women's entrepreneurship. A roundtable gathering of women leaders, businesswomen and trade support institutions will discuss corporate and government procurement issues, including a plan to ensure a greater part of government purchases benefit women-owned SMEs. More than 400 women-owned companies from 45 developing countries have registered for the Women Vendors Exhibition and Forum (WVEF) to generate new business.
Register for WEDF 2014 at www.intracen.org/wedf. We look forward to welcoming you in Kigali!

Sudan: Protests Erupt in Khartoum Over Electricity, Water Outages

Khartoum — Sudanese police fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of people who were protesting against power cuts and water outages in al-Daim neighborhood in the center of the capital Khartoum.

The same area has been the scene of some of the bloodiest confrontations between demonstrators and police during last year's protests.

Protests erupted in September 2013 following the government's decision to lift fuel subsidies. Rights groups said that at least 200 people were killed but the government put the death toll at 85.

Activists have called for commemorating these protests this month.

Agence France Presse (AFP) reported that 300 young people gathered and blocked the main street with burned tires after which riot police vehicles arrived and fired tear gas while demonstrators cast stones in their direction.

It added that police chased protesters in the side streets for several hours and noted that plain clothed elements carrying whips were also involved in the chase.

The Sudanese minister of Electricity Moatez Moussa said the shortage is caused by low electricity generation in autumn season, which he said caused a loss of 500 megawatt from Merowe Dam and 80 megawatt from Rosaries dam.

The minister vowed to rectify the situation within 10 days.

The neighbourhoods of the capital Khartoum and other cities are witnessing regular electricity outages that start from late night hours and stretching well into the morning.

Uganda on alert over 'foiled al-Shabab plot'

Security was increased at key sites in the Ugandan capital, including Entebbe international airport

The authorities in Uganda have uncovered a terrorist cell which they believe was planning an imminent attack, the US embassy in Kampala says.

It said the cell belonged to Somali Islamist group al-Shabab, but this has yet to be confirmed by Ugandan police.

The embassy earlier warned US citizens in the capital to stay at homeduring a police operation to uncover the cell.

Ugandan police say they have increased security in public places across Kampala, and made several arrests.

Earlier this week, the US embassy warned of possible revenge attacks against US targets by al-Shabab in response to the US air strike that killed the group's leader Ahmed Abdi Godane on 2 September.

'Stay at home'

"We're increasing patrols in the city, major towns and other vulnerable places," police spokesman Fred Enanga told reporters on Saturday.

In addition to making several arrests, the police said they had seized explosive materials.

The suspects are believed to be foreigners, says the BBC 's Catherine Byaruhanga.

Soldiers and police were out in force in a similar alert in July following a threat to Uganda's main airport

The US embassy urged US citizens "to stay at home or proceed to a safe location" while the Ugandan authorities were conducting operations against a suspected al-Shabab terrorist cell in Kampala, in a message on its website.

It said it was not aware of specific targets but that security had been increased at key sites, including Entebbe international airport.

Al-Shabab has vowed to retaliate for the killing of Godane.

The Islamist group, which wants to overthrow the UN-backed government in Somalia, has since named Ahmad Umar as the new leader.

The group was behind twin blasts targeting a rugby ground and Ethiopian restaurant in Kampala that killed 76 football fans watching the World Cup final in July 2010.

At the time, the then-leader Ahmed Abdi Godane said the attack was retribution for Uganda's deployment of troops as part of the African Union joint force to help Somalia combat al-Shabab militants.

Egypt 'has key role' in fight against Islamic State - Kerry

Egypt has a key role to play in countering Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, US Secretary of State John Kerry said on a visit to Cairo.

He said Egypt could "publicly renounce" IS ideology, reaffirming US support for Egypt's battle against Sinai militants.

Foreign fighters crossing Sinai en route for Syria are advising local militants there, US officials say.

Mr Kerry is on the last leg of his Middle East tour as he tries to form a broad coalition to tackle IS militants.

He has already enlisted the support of 10 Arab states so far but he has ruled out Iran joining the US-led coalition.

IS controls large parts of both countries and its fighters have become notorious for their brutality, but in recent weeks they have been targeted by US air strikes.

The CIA says the group has as many as 30,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq.

On Wednesday, President Barack Obama unveiled plans for an expansion of the US campaign against IS.

Shia militias have joined forces with the Iraqi army and Kurdish fighters to try to fight back against IS

The 10 Arab countries to have signed up to the coalition are: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

France is hosting an international conference on Iraqi security on Monday as part of efforts to broaden the alliance.

Sinai jihadists

Egypt is "on the frontline of the fight against terrorism, particularly when it comes to fighting extremist groups in Sinai," Mr Kerry said, after talks with Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi and President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

He acknowledged Egypt's reputation as "an intellectual and cultural capital of the Muslim world," saying it had a "critical role to play in publicly renouncing the ideology that IS disseminates".

Jihadist militants have stepped up attacks in Sinai since the overthrow of Mohamed Morsi last year

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri, speaking at the same news conference, said that ties existed between IS and other militant groups operating in the region, which must also be dealt with.

Mr Kerry says military and intelligence experts will spend the coming days working out how each state will contribute.

But speaking in Turkey on Friday, he said it would be "inappropriate" for Iran to join the group because of its "engagement in Syria and elsewhere".

Iran has backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, while the US and several European and Gulf countries have supported the rebel factions fighting to overthrow him.

Mr Kerry held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Friday in an effort to secure more co-operation from the Turkish government in the fight against IS.

Turkey has refused to allow the use of its air bases to launch attacks on the jihadist group.

The BBC's Jim Muir in Irbil says one reason is that Turkey fears for the lives of nearly 50 Turkish hostages held by the militants, including staff from the consulate in Mosul.

Separately on Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said he had ordered the Iraqi air force to stop air strikes on civilian areas under IS control in order to protect civilians.

In recent months IS has expanded from its stronghold in eastern Syria and seized control of more towns, cities, army bases and weaponry in Iraq.

The US has already carried out more than 150 air strikes in northern Iraq. It has also sent hundreds of military advisers to assist Iraqi government and Kurdish forces, but has ruled out sending ground troops.

ENI boss investigated for corruption in Nigerian deal

The chief executive of the Italian oil and natural gas company ENI is under investigation over international corruption allegations.

Claudio Descalzi is facing questions about a large Nigerian oil deal.

The company said in a statement that "it is cooperating with the Milan prosecutor's office" and that it "continues to deny any illegal conduct".

Shares in the company were down 2% in afternoon trading.

Lesotho After Pretoria - More Questions Than Answers As Leaders Continue to Dance Close to the Flame

ANALYSIS

Motsoahae Thomas Thabane, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Lesotho (file photo).

By T'oeu Petlane

More than a week has now passed since the ostensible coup attempt of 29 August in Lesotho. This was sold officially as an operation to neutralise elements within the Lesotho Mounted Police Service who were colluding with government supporters to disrupt a protest march the following Monday.

The march was organised by the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) - one of the three partners in the coalition government that included the All-Basotho Convention (ABC) and Basotho National Party (BNP) - to urge Prime Minister Thomas Thabane to reconvene parliament.

Thabane had suspended parliament through royal prorogation in June, when threatened with a motion of no-confidence (a parliamentary procedure that could have seen him lose the premiership). When the army mounted raids on police stations around Maseru, Thabane and some senior government officials fled Lesotho to seek shelter in South Africa.

The characterisation of this event as a coup attempt remains contested because although Thabane pronounced it so and admitted he had left the country fearing for his life, he later somersaulted on this, and continues to insist he is in charge of the country. Contested also because the army chief (Lieutenant-General Tali Kamoli) who caused all the commotion has been officially fired, but insists that he executed a 'normal' operation to disarm renegades who were threatening national stability. He remains, on the face of it, the de facto commander, despite the appointment of another (Maaparankoe Mahao) to this post. Mahao's house was attacked on Sunday 30 August, but he had already left the country.

By Tuesday 2 September, Thabane and others who had fled with him, including the police chief and the newly-appointed army commander, were back in Maseru, guarded by the South African police. This followed frenetic negotiations amongst the three coalition partners in Pretoria, facilitated by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and South African president Jacob Zuma as chairman of the regional body's security and politics arm.

On Friday 5 September, the coalition leaders reported to the King on progress made towards implementing the Pretoria agreement, and gave the commitment to reconvene Parliament. Yet they again failed to endorse the target date of 19 September for Parliament to reopen, as agreed.

It appears that 'solutions' to and 'agreements' on Lesotho's political crises are again leaving more questions unanswered. Could the Kingdom's leaders be playing a game of chicken with the future of the nation for their own ends?

First, the events of last week stubbornly refuse to fit into the classic definition of a coup d'état, mainly because army commander Kamoli shied from crossing the line and announcing a take-over of political-administrative bodies: he simply went back to the barracks after the stated mission of disarming police renegades was achieved. Could the continued labelling of the incident as an attempted coup have ulterior motives?

Second, why is Thabane flouting the letter of the Pretoria agreement by failing to declare or confirm the opening of Parliament on 19 September? In this connection it should be recalled that the Windhoek Declaration, which forms part of the basis for the Pretoria agreement, contributed to the current crisis. The Windhoek Declaration was signed by the three partners in July and facilitated by Namibian President Hifikepunye Pohamba, then chair of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security.

Third, it is not clear whether the threat of a vote of no confidence has been taken off the table (especially) by the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD), which is increasingly friendly with Democratic Congress (DC) despite the formal dissolution of their earlier 'marriage' (a dissolution prompted by the Windhoek Declaration). This will remain a sword dangling over the head of Thabane's coalition (and his leadership of it), and therefore will also continue to threaten a true denouement of the impasse. Why is the LCD's Mothetjoa Metsing (and other anti-Thabane forces) studiously avoiding giving assurances in this regard?

Fourth, Pretoria mandated the three coalition partners to draw up a roadmap for both technical and political issues to be addressed before and after reopening parliament. Already the coalition parties (through their executive committees) have clashed and cancelled one meeting last week - apparently because they had reached a deadlock. This can only bode ill for future progress, and given the weight of their potential agenda, bring into question their full commitment to a roadmap.

Fifth, while Pretoria also provided for a SADC mediation/facilitation team, its biggest weakness, like Windhoek, remains the absence of a national counterpart to complement the process. It leaves the negotiations in the hands of the very parties who sparked the crisis because they were no longer on speaking terms; ironically they continually insisted there was no crisis. The absence of a national peace-building process or facility in this connection leaves Lesotho's leaders vulnerable to repeating the same mistakes once outside facilitators (and police) depart.

Particularly important in this connection is the 'side-lining' of the monarch, who, at this juncture is the only national voice that the feuding sides might plausibly heed. Of course, the retort here is normally that the King is above politics, and as such can only be consulted if all parties agree; and that his intervention may be either premature or likely to be seen as biased by one side or another. In my view, arguments of this nature are a cop-out, and allow politicians to continue taking the nation to the brink of disaster by searching for external solutions when they have yet to exhaust internal remedies that may be sustainable in the longer run.

Related to this is the total silence and 'isolation' of the DC. As the single largest party in parliament and a former ruling party, the DC's inclusion could be positive, particularly because the current situation is a national crisis - not merely a crisis among the coalition partners. Greater involvement by other elements of society (such as faith-based organisations, civil society and citizens at large), and therefore the inclusiveness of solutions brokered, can only help. Why are these (and other) actors not involved formally?

Sixth is the question of the current position, location and future of Kamoli, who has been reported (by the international news media) to have fled into the mountains with a sizeable chunk of the national armoury and support of some of the most dangerous of Lesotho's soldiers, the special forces. His actions and those of politicians in allowing him to do so, are drawing Lesotho dangerously close to the fire - and the Basotho are likely to suffer.

The current calm should not be taken either for granted or as a sign of stability. It is only natural that Thabane insists he is in full control, and that the South Africans will leave as soon as there is complete normality. But it remains painfully obvious to the casual observer that not all is well in Lesotho, and that its leaders have yet to grasp the depth of insecurity, uncertainty and division in this Kingdom.

In a couple of weeks, Lesotho will celebrate the anniversary of another botched 'solution' (in 1998) that resulted in both military intervention and the transformation of the country into a virtual dominion of SADC. The foreign armed presence then (negotiated by Thabane in exile to save an LCD government - of which he was then a member), lasted over a year, and led to tens of lives lost.

As Jacob Zuma and Festus Mogae again 'tour' the country in their roles as facilitators, Lesotho's leaders would do well to take the current situation seriously by adhering to their commitments and putting the needs of their citizens before their political survival or technical legalities which appear to offer no long-lasting solution.